Crops are growing and I’m sure plenty of farmers out there are looking for a good yield. Only a few months away from harvest with combines running in full gear and grain bins filling up.

So, the question then becomes, “What do we do with it?” Let’s take a look at USDA projections for this crop.

USDA’s  World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is a first look at the new crop year’s supply and demand balance sheets.

For the domestic 2024/2025 crop supply projections for most crops are based on farmer planting decisions from the March Prospective Plantings report and trend yield models. 

Corn: For the 2024/25 marketing year, USDA projects U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.102 billion bushels, up four percent (80 million bushels) from 2023/2024. The current new crop corn projection came in below industry expectations and almost 17% below estimations from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. With the loosening domestic market, USDA projects the average market price to fall to $4.40/bushel, down 5.4% from 2023/2024. Globally, we can expect corn ending stocks to hold steady in 2024/25 – falling only 0.3% due to lower production.

Overall, the corn market in 2024/25 is looking less bearish than it did when farmers were making planting decisions a few months ago. USDA raised both old crop and new crop corn demand (total use) by 100 million bushels each. Projections for total use in the 2024/2025 marketing year of 14.8 billion bushels represent a 1.1 billion bushel increase over 2022/2023, bouncing back to near-record levels set in 2021/22 at 14.9 billion bushels.

Soybeans: While the 2024/2025 corn market is looking less bearish, the opposite is true for soybeans. In the upcoming marketing year, U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, higher than both trade expectations and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates in February. As compared to the current 2023/24 marketing year, this represents a whopping 30.8% increase. Due to this large projected increase, USDA projects prices to fall to $11.20 per bushel, a year-over-year decrease of 10.8%.

Globally, there is a similar but more muted situation for soybean ending stocks, with a year-over-year projected increase of 15%, rising up to 128.5 million metric tons (MMT). Brazilian production is projected to increase 15 MMT (9.7%) to 169 MMT in 2024/25, and Brazilian exports are projected to increase three MMT (2.9%) to 105 MMT.

The estimations for soybeans are heavily reliant on continued growth in soybean use, with an estimated 125-million-bushel increase in both crushings and exports, representing increases of 5.4% and 7.4%, respectively. If demand does not hold firm for soybeans, it could turn more bearish very quickly.

Wheat: Wheat is a bright spot of the report, with projections of a tightening global market in 2024/25. Domestically, ending stocks are projected to increase 11.4% to 766 million bushels, based on increased production (+2.5%) attributed to improved growing conditions. While domestic production is forecasted to increase in 2024/25, it will still be the eighth-lowest harvested-to-planted acre ratio for winter wheat. When compared to 2023 (second lowest on record) and 2022 (fourth lowest on record), the picture is rosier.

USDA projects global wheat to have the lowest ending stocks in eight years – falling 1.6% year-over-year to 253.6 MMT. Despite the tightening global market – U.S. average farm prices for wheat are projected to decrease to $6, a 15.5% drop from the 2023/24 marketing year.

Annual meeting

The Ogle County Farm Bureau has announced that it will host its Annual Member Meeting on Sept. 5 at St. Mary’s Community Center in Oregon.

The meeting marks the 107th anniversary for the Ogle County Farm Bureau, which was started in 1917.

Ogle County Farm Bureau members and their families are invited to attend the Sept. 5 meeting and participate in the dinner and business meeting of the organization.

The evening begins at 7 p.m. with a roast beef dinner. Following dinner, Ogle County Farm Bureau President Keith Poole will convene the annual business meeting of the members. During the business session members will elect directors for the farm bureau organization, receive committee and board reports and conduct business as scheduled prior to the meeting.

Evan Hultine, Illinois Farm Bureau vice president, will be the featured speaker.

Tickets for the annual meeting must be purchased in advance for $5 each. Tickets can be obtained from the Ogle County Farm Bureau office in Oregon or from directors of the organization.

For more information on the meeting or on obtaining tickets contact myself at the Ogle County Farm Bureau at 815-732-2231.

“Good friends know all your stories. Best friends helped you write them.” -Anonymous

Ron Kern is the manager of the Ogle County Farm Bureau.